ARM_insert.pdf: Actuarial Risk Management. How Does it Work.

• This paper provides a one page introduction to Actuarial Analysis in silviculture from a risk management perspective.

This approach was developed by Ian Moss, Mishtu Banerjee and Andrea Eastham in the late 90's as a way of evaluating the risk associated with silvicultural decisions with respect to achieving or failing to achieve a management target. The Acturial method has been applied to a number of Silvicultural decision frames in British Columbia including: Free-to-Grow predictions, Integrated Pest Management planning, and Survey based plantation performance prediction.

The various spreadsheets, automate the calculations detailed in the "User's Guide to Actuary Tables".

• This spreadsheet illustrates the basic statistical principles of Actuary calculations, and provides a step-by-step tutorial on the calculations. Each step is colour coded. Calculation of actuaries is given using two models: (i) assuming data approximates a normal distribution and (ii) the more general case of not assuming a data distribution.

• This spreadsheet provides a presentation formatted template for Actuary Calculations, with output as Actuary Curves. This spreadsheet documents the basic calculations, and provides a template for charting.

• This spreadsheet provides a presentation formatted template for Gains Analysis. In Gains Analysis -- one compares the actuary curves for two alternative scenarios. The difference between the expected results for the two Scenarios represent the Gains (or alternatively, the Declines).

Original Site Setup: -- MishtuBanerjee - 30 Jul 2004

Site Updated: -- MishtuBanerjee - 06 Dec 2004

Harmeny Actuary Based Risk Managment

It's key strengths are the simplicity of the calculations involved -- their relationship to notions of risk, and it's reliance on long term monitoring data to provide the basis for modelling, and survey data to provide the basis for predictions.

UsersGuidetoActuaryTables_PH5REP.pdf: User's Guide to Actuary Tables

• This paper provides a step-by-step introduction to the Actuarial Method as applied to making performance predictions on Trees.

ACTUARY.XLS: Spreadsheet Tutorial for Actuary Calculations

• This spreadsheet illustrates two versions of Actuary calculations, and provides a step-by-step tutorial on the calculations. Each step is colour coded.

PH5TUARY.XLS: Template for Actuary Calculations

• This spreadsheet provides a nicely formatted template for Actuary Calculations, with output as Actuary Curves. This spreadsheet documents the basic calculations, and provides a template for charting.

GAINS.XLS: Template for Gains Analysis Calculations

• This spreadsheet provides a nicely formatted template for Gains Analysis. In Gains Analysis -- one compares the actuary curves for two alternative scenarios. The difference between the expected results for the two Scenarios represent the Gains (or alternatively, the Declines).

• This presentation developed by Ian Moss and Craig Farnden is a visual guide to the application of the Stand Structure Classification. In particular it emphasizes the relationship between Stand Structure Classification, Stand and Stock Tables, and what a Field Forester would view from the ground in a stand of a particular Stand Structure class. This file is quite large, so it is recommended you download it first and then view (Right click on link, choose "Save Target As ..."), rather than viewing in the web browser. For viewing from a web browser, there is an earlier less graphic intensive version of this presentation, here: ianmStandStructureClassification_20040921_2.pdf

Harmeny Perspectives

Harmeny Perspectives Series Papers

Harmeny Stand Structure Series Papers

Harmeny Perspectives Series Papers

Harmeny Stand Structure Series Papers

• This presentation developed by Ian Moss and Craig Farnden is a visual guide to the application of the Stand Structure Classification. In particular it emphasizes the relationship between Stand Structure Classification, Stand and Stock Tables, and what a Field Forester would view from the ground in a stand of a particular Stand Structure class. This file is quite large, so it is recommended you dowload it first and then view (Right click on link, choose "Save Target As ..."), rather than viewing in the web browser. For viewing from a web browser, there is an earlier less graphic intensive version of this presentation, here: ianmStandStructureClassification_20040921_2.pdf

• This paper introduces several current resource managment paradigms: Sustainability, Ecosystem Management, Habitat Management, Forest Asset Management.

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Harmeny Perspectives Series Papers

Harmeny Stand Structure Series Papers

Press on the links below to access the papers. Each link leads to a page from which you can download the PDF file for that paper/presentation

imSSClassMethods_Original.pdf: A Quantitative Method For Building Systems of Classification

• This paper presents the original Stand Structure Algorithm. It begins with a non-technical description of the management rationale for a Stand Structure Classification, followed by a technical description of the Algorithm, with graphical output on the effectiveness of the algorithm. The current version of the Stand Structure Algorithm has gone through several refinements since the development of this paper. However this represents the seminal presentation of concepts and general methodology.

ianmStandStructureClassification_20040921_2.pdf: Stand Structure Classification Presentation Slides

• This presentation developed by Ian Moss and Craig Farnden is a visual guide to the application of the Stand Structure Classification. In particular it emphasizes the relationship between Stand Structure Classification, Stand and Stock Tables, and what a Field Forester would view from the ground in a stand of a particular Stand Structure class.

SFMIndicatorsReport20040420.pdf: Sustainable Forest Management Indicators

• This paper takes a more management oriented perspective, and presents a framework for developing Sustainable Forest Management Indicator systems based on Stand Structure Classification. It provides a concrete application in terms of the notion of "How Much Old Growth Is Enough" to illustrate use of Stand Structure to inform management insight into sustainability.

Link to Stand Structure Field Guides on Lignum Site

• This links to a several documents available on the Lignum Site, including detailed field guides based on the original version of the classification.

Link to Stand Structure and Seral Stage Research on Lignum Site

• This links to a several documents available on the Lignum Site, that document development of Stand Structure and Seral Stage concepts.

Much of the Stand Structure Methodology was developed in conjunction with Lignum Ltd over a period of several years. That support is gratefully acknowledged. Lignum Ltd is now part of Riverside Forest Products Ltd

Original Site Setup:

Site Updated: -- MishtuBanerjee - 28 Sep 2004

• A single-page short note linking the concept of "Treatment and Response" from designed experiments, to the notions of "Initial Conditions, Actions, Consequences" from monitoring based management. Based on William G. Cochran's "Planning and Analysis of Observational Studies", one of the early works in data analysis for decision making under conditions where traditional experiments are impractical, impossible, or unethical.

Harmeny Perspectives is a series of position paper's developing Harmeny's approach to natural resource management, and is strongly influenced by a Systems Thinking approach -- that focusses on:

• looking at a system through several "lenses", from the birds-eye telescopic view, to a fine-details microscopic view.
• looking at system interactions wholistically (seeing the forest and the trees)
• anticipatory management -- rather than controlling systems, anticipating where they are going, and being in-line with their dynamics
• information flow -- in an uncertain environment, the value of information increases.

The position papers are listed below. The current series focusses on forest inventory as the basis of forest asset management. Future editions, will deal with a wider range of concepts from systems theory and management.

We don't have a regular publishing schedule, so check back to this page for new updates. Each position paper, has it's own page for you to add your thoughts and comments -- with the original version of the paper available as a PDF format file.

Harmeny Perspectives Series Papers

Press on the links below to access the papers. Each link leads to a page from which you can download the PDF file for that paper (The "Authors Version" ), and with an HTML copy of the text, to which you can add your own thoughts and comments (the "Community Version" ). All papers are "Working Drafts", that is, they will be refined as our understanding grows and changes. The Online versions, will themselves become refined via your own comments and critiques.

A Simple View of the Inventory

• This paper presents a simple way of looking at the Forest Inventory in terms of three linked concepts: Stand, Species, Sites.

Key Concepts in the Design of Forest Inventories

• The purpose of this paper is to outline a framework within which the Forest Industry

Forest Asset Accounting : A Discussion Paper

• Introduces the notion of Forest Asset Accounting as a methodology that provides an integrated approach to dealing with trade-offs in resource utilization that balances biological, social and business concerns

"Simply Necessary"

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-- MishtuBanerjee - 30 Jul 2004